Ireland's growing discontent
THE RESULTS of the Irish general election could be greeted
by some philosophical Irish voters with the refrain that the more things change
the more they stay the same. Certainly, there has been little change at the top
in Irish politics. Bertie Ahern's ruling Fianna F‡il party gained 80 seats,
three short of an overall majority, and looks likely to continue in government
with a repetition of the outgoing FF/Progressive Democrats coalition.
But there were significant developments which point to a big
change in the future shape of politics in Ireland. Parties seen as outside the
political establishment, like the Socialist Party, Green Party and Sinn FŽin,
along with independents, had the biggest increases in their vote. This is a sign
of the growing disillusionment with the sleazy Irish political establishment.
These groups combined got 21% of the vote and 25 TDs (MPs).
The Socialist Party (affiliated to the international
socialist organisation, the CWI) scored spectacular successes. Joe Higgins was
re-elected as a TD in Dublin West, coming second out of the constituency's three
elected candidates with an increased vote. He got 6,442 first preference votes,
21.5%, which transfers raised to 7,853 on the fourth count, when he was elected.
Socialist Party councillor Clare Daly, standing in Dublin
North, got 5,501 first-preference votes (12.5%) on a 60.3% turnout - a higher
first preference vote than Labour leader Ruairi Quinn. This went up to 6,772
votes when she was eliminated on count eight. Clare was in third position all
the way through until the final count and beat a former Fine Gael (the main
opposition party) deputy leader, Nora Owen.
In the other seats where Socialist Party members stood, Lisa
Maher in Dublin South got 1,063 votes (2.1%); Mick Murphy in Dublin South-West
got 954 votes (2.6%); and Mick Barry in Cork North Central got 936 votes (2.1%).
In total, across five seats the Socialist Party got 14,896 votes - an average of
nearly 3,000 per seat.
Fine Gael and Labour suffered setbacks. Fine Gael suffered
an electoral disaster, with its share of the vote falling by 5.4%, despite
pointing out how shallow the nature of Fianna F‡il's Celtic Tiger is. Fine
Gael is just as tainted with the stench of corruption that lingers over
Ireland's establishment parties, and its economic programme hardly differed from
that of Fianna F‡il. So for many voters it was a case of 'better the devil you
know' in the form of Bertie Ahern and Fianna F‡il. Fine Gael leader Michael
Noonan resigned soon after the election.
Labour, although making some gains, partly by putting on a
more 'left' face, also did less well than they expected and their national vote
dropped by 2%.
Despite the alleged successes of the Celtic Tiger, the
election result was not a ringing endorsement of Ahern and Fianna F‡il or for
any of the establishment parties. The turnout at the election at 63% was down
from 1997, despite the introduction of longer opening hours for polling booths
and electronic voting in three constituencies.
Some of the fall in turnout can be explained by the
appalling rainstorms that lasted throughout election day. More generally, the
lower turnout reflects a trend apparent in other countries, that voters are
increasingly alienated from corrupt, sleazy establishment parties.
The vote for those perceived as outside the establishment,
however, shows another process at work. There is a layer of voters (especially
among the working class) looking for a real alternative.
Also a rise in tactical voting saw an unexpected increase in
votes and TDs for the Progressive Democrats, showing that, regardless of the
economic boom and alleged charisma of Ahern (not difficult given the character
of the opposition), voters were wary of granting Fianna F‡il an outright
majority for the first time in 25 years.
Sinn FŽin is regarded, at least by its voters, as being
outside of the Irish political establishment and its success in picking up five
TDs reflects this. It is also reported to be the best financed political
organisation in Europe. The abundance of glossy material Sinn FŽin gave out,
and the expensive stunts it carried out, including the hiring of planes with
huge display banners in Dublin West two days before the election, showed that it
is awash with funds.
During the election Sinn FŽin played different tunes in
different constituencies, more radical in working-class areas than rural areas.
It opportunistically latched on to the anti-bin charges campaign, although they
have done very little work on the ground where the Socialist Party has played a
leading role.
Sinn FŽin's true intent was brought out as it made
increasingly loud overtures about being involved in some form of right-wing
coalition government. Although it is unlikely at this stage that it will be
taken in to a coalition, it is still advancing the idea even after the election.
If Sinn FŽin is left in opposition, however, given the weakness of the Fine
Gael and Labour opposition to Fianna F‡il, then it is possible that it could
make bigger gains at the next election.
The success of the so-called fringe parties, against the
backdrop of a continuing economic boom, can also be explained by the character
of the Celtic Tiger, which is now more of a stooping tiger than a crouching one.
The character of the boom has brought with it an increase in class antagonism
against corrupt establishment politicians and the chaos in transport, housing,
education and other aspects of the deteriorating infrastructure, caused by the
lop-sided economic growth.
Irish gross national product rose from Û41.9 billion in
1994 to Û86 billion in 2000. This represented a leap from 60% of the European
average in 1989 to 114% in 1999. But just one day after the election a report
from the head of economic research at the Ulster Bank warned of a Û5 billion
(about £3.3bn) black hole in government accounts, meaning that tax rises and
public spending cuts are likely.
This is despite the fact that Irish spending on health,
education, public housing and transport is all below the EU average. There was
enormous anger at how, just a few years ago, 90% of a Û5 billion public
spending surplus (for a population of just under four million) was handed out in
tax cuts - mainly to the wealthy and corrupt - and only 10% went to public
expenditure.
Homelessness has doubled in the last five years alone and
the gap between the rich and poor has widened by Û242 a week (about £160).
Ireland also has the lowest number of acute hospital beds and GP doctors per
head of the population in Europe.
The Celtic Tiger has also brought huge changes in Ireland's
working class, which now has a more dynamic and concentrated character, with
large amounts of women being taken in to the workforce. One-third of the
nation's population now lives in the Dublin area which is now experiencing
increasing health, traffic, housing and education chaos. There is a higher
confidence about challenging the bosses and the establishment.
It is clear from the election that this layer is also
looking for a political alternative to the discredited establishment parties.
The Irish press played up Sinn FŽin and the Green Party gains, virtually
blacking out the Socialist Party, but it is the Socialist Party that is laying
the most solid base on the ground for future growth.
The campaigning work being done against the hated bin tax
and the reputation now established by the Socialist Party and its
representatives, especially Joe Higgins and Clare Daly, will see the Socialist
Party poised to make more spectacular gains in future elections when the
lop-sided economic growth of the Celtic Tiger finally expires.
Ken Smith |