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Bush’s energy review dead-end
GEORGE BUSH’S plan to build 1,300 new power plants over
the next 20 years will give a disastrous twist to the spiralling problem of
global warming.
The great majority of the new generating stations will be
coal and oil-fired, the biggest culprits in the production of carbon dioxide,
the most dangerous greenhouse gas. The remainder will be nuclear plants, which
are ‘environmentally friendly’ according to Bush, because they do not
contribute to global warming. This one-sided claim, conveniently ignoring a
string of nuclear-related disasters and near disasters, could herald a new and
dangerous departure in the thinking of the strategists of capitalism in a
pro-nuclear direction.
Bush’s energy policy is in reality a payback to the big
oil and energy companies who were the largest backers of his presidential
campaign. Even the short-term justification of an imminent power shortage
outlined in the plan, authored by vice president Dick Cheney, formerly head of
the giant Halliburton oil equipment and services company, is bogus. The
California power cuts result from the deregulation of the electricity industry
and the ensuing market-induced anarchy, and the second factor, rapidly-rising
oil and gas prices, will almost certainly be temporary as the world recession
deepens.
The White House decision to ditch the Kyoto agreement to cut
greenhouse gases was clearly linked to the energy policy Cheney was cooking up,
despite the lip service paid by Bush to renewable energy in his proposals. The
new administration is right in one respect however, that of exposing the
hypocrisy of the Clinton Democrats on this issue. The previous US government
fought to water down the Kyoto protocol until it was virtually meaningless. It
ended in the farce of carbon emission ‘trading’, a scheme where the Western
powers bought the quotas to produce greenhouse gases (at very reasonable prices)
of the former Soviet block countries and added them to their own. This would
have resulted in no new emissions cuts since the Eastern quotas were based on
output figures compiled before the economic collapse in the region slashed
energy usage, and the associated polluting gases, by over 50%.
The return to nuclear power generation signalled in the
Cheney plan was partly justified on the grounds that it is an energy source that
does not produce greenhouse gases. Apart from ignoring the other deadly
environmental dangers linked to nuclear power, the Bush/Cheney argument is
totally inconsistent since they not only challenge the link between global
warming and CO2 output, but also the evidence of a rise in world
surface temperatures at all. This is despite the overwhelming empirical data and
the opinion of the vast majority of scientists to the contrary.
Nevertheless, the strategic shift to nuclear power by the
US, may indicate a dim awareness, despite the current Republican pay-off policy
to Big Oil, that something will have to be done to prevent a climate change
disaster. Nuclear would fit this bill because it would entail less investment
than wind, wave or solar energy and therefore hit profits the least.
Bush must be hoping that the disasters at the US Three Mile
Island nuclear power station in 1979 and Chernobyl in 1986 have been forgotten.
There were many similarities between the two, although a meltdown of the reactor
core was narrowly, and largely by chance, avoided in the US incident. Estimates
at the time of Chernobyl put the likely death toll at 100,000, mainly from
cancers occurring over the subsequent decades, due to the radio-active cloud
that spread round the world and the contamination of the water table as the
melting nuclear pile bored into the earth’s crust. In addition to this horror
there have been thousands of children born with genetic defects, which will be
reproduced in future generations. The supporters of nuclear energy claim that
the chances of an incident are very small, but Chernobyl and Three Mile Island
demonstrate that the consequences of an accident are so catastrophic no risk is
acceptable.
The second aspect of nuclear technology conveniently not
mentioned by Bush was the disposal of nuclear waste. No safe method has yet been
devised to store the plutonium that is an inevitable by-product, despite decades
of research. The waste material has a half-life of 100,000 years, meaning it
will remain radio-active for at least that time. The US claims it will have a
safe site ready in ten years and the EU in twenty, but these assertions are
highly doubtful. They are happy to condemn future generations to try to deal
with the problem.
The US abandonment of Kyoto, even if it was largely
cosmetic, and its promotion of fossil fuel and nuclear energy, will give impetus
to the debate in the anti-capitalist movement on the environment and sustainable
growth. The refusal of Bush and the multi-national corporations he represents to
admit even that global warming exists will increasingly call into question the
role of US-dominated global capitalism, if environmental disaster is to be
avoided in the coming decades.
All the governments of the world and the big corporations
continually recite the mantra of sustainable growth, without having the
intention or capability to make it a reality. Their inability to provide free
market solutions is partly explained by the huge scale of the problem. An
analysis was done recently based on the so-called Commoner-Ehrlich equation
(I=PCT)* which is used to predict the conditions necessary for sustainable
growth. The assumptions built into the calculation were for zero growth in the
industrialised countries (The North) and a four-fold increase in consumption in
the underdeveloped world (The South). This in itself would hardly begin the
process of transforming these societies; for instance, per-capita incomes would
remain only one sixth of the North and the problems of poverty in the North
could not be overcome either. Nevertheless, T in the equation, the overall
environmental impact per unit of consumption, would have to be reduced by 90% to
cut the environmental impact, I, by half, a figure that would produce
sustainability. T can be reduced either by technical change, such as using
non-polluting technology and increasing labour productivity, or by changing
consumer behaviour, for example, switching from private to public transport. T
also depends on the manner in which resources are deployed, that is, the social
relations of production.
What are the chances of achieving even this very modest
sustainable outcome for the world’s poor on the basis of the market system?
The human, scientific and technical resources to achieve this exist today; the
question is can they be deployed effectively using the market, in particular
will the necessary investment be found? The free market solution, a Carbon Tax
and other taxes on polluting firms, would be a non-starter. The US accounts for
25% of all greenhouse emissions so a tax would fall mainly on its firms,
slashing their profits in relation to overseas rivals. This raises the question
of who would collect the tax? The US government is the political representative
of the big polluting corporations and would clearly resist any pressure to move
in this direction. Another objection to the ‘make the polluter pay’ idea is
that it would be possible to find a thousand loopholes through any legislation.
It is often difficult, if not impossible, to exactly pin down the environmental
costs of the actions of an individual firm or industry.
Is another possibility appealing to the capitalists’
long-term self-interest, since it is true that the degradation of the planet
would not be in the best interests of capitalism in general? To pose this
question reveals one of the fundamental contradictions of the profit-driven
market system. No individual company or country, even the USA, is in control of
developments. The global juggernaut of capitalism has its own inner logic and
needs, the chief of which is the pursuit of profit. Driven by competition, each
firm will act to maximise its profits and will expect ‘its’ government’s
support against international rivals. The fact that, in the abstract, they do
not want to destroy the planet in the process is of little consequence. This law
will continue to apply if attempts to control the environment by social
democratic intervention are made, rendering it as futile, in the long run, as
the free market approach.
The flaws in the market system mean the whole debate on
sustainability is inevitably moving in the direction of a serious debate on
alternatives and in particular the possibilities of democratic socialist
planning on an international basis. This is beginning to be reflected in the
academic discussions on the issue, a harbinger of the more general
rehabilitation of socialist ideas. Marxists must be in forefront of the debate
in the anti-capitalist movement on this crucial question because we have the
only credible solution.
Pete Dickenson
* The Commoner-Ehrlich equation has the form I=PCT, where I
is environmental impact, P population, C consumption per head, and T is the
overall environmental impact per unit of consumption. Caution should be used in
reading too much into the results since the variables in the equation all depend
to an extent on each other, and the relationships between them are often not
fully understood. This is particularly the case for the implied variables in T
which include consumer behaviour and the rate of technical change. However in
the case looked at here, the general trend and scale of the problem are clearly
shown.
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